Following Bashar Al-Assad’s departure to Moscow, scenes of celebration erupted in Damascus as crowds took to the streets and looters raided the presidential palace. Despite desperate last-minute appeals for support, including one to Donald Trump, Assad’s regime ultimately fell after a prolonged struggle.
The rapid collapse of the ruling Assad dynasty—long entrenched in power but blamed for years of devastation during Syria’s civil war—has shocked the world. Yet, as initial celebrations subside, concerns about escalating violence and instability in the region are mounting. The power vacuum left by Assad’s departure evokes haunting memories of Libya after Muammar Qaddafi and Iraq following Saddam Hussein, where fleeting optimism gave way to deeper chaos.
Experts and officials are wary. Bader Al-Saif, a professor at Kuwait University, noted, “Chaos and factional competition are expected during transitions. Syria has already been divided for over a decade with severe socioeconomic and political decay.”
The Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, displaced millions and triggered a migrant crisis that continues to affect Europe. The fallout also adds pressure on Middle Eastern nations already dealing with conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. While Russia maintains military interests in Syria, its focus on the war in Ukraine limits its capacity to intervene further. Meanwhile, Iran, though weakened, is unlikely to relinquish its influence in Syria without a fight.
The speed of Assad’s fall was striking. Just a week ago, his hold on power appeared secure. However, an insurgent advance led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swiftly captured key cities like Aleppo and Hama before closing in on Damascus. On Sunday, rebels seized the state television station, declaring the “end of the criminal Assad regime.” Shortly after, Russia’s foreign ministry confirmed Assad’s resignation and departure.
With Assad gone, the future of Syria remains uncertain. The rebels, who united against a common enemy, could soon face internal divisions. “The factions may turn on each other,” warned Bahjat Hajjar, co-founder of an NGO who fled Syria in 2011. This sentiment was echoed by the UAE’s Anwar Gargash, who cautioned against “a spiral of chaos, extremism, and violence.” Saudi Arabia similarly warned of potential “chaos and division” as the transition period unfolds.
In the United States, President-elect Trump reiterated America’s non-intervention stance, stating on social media, “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend.” The U.S. has designated HTS, which previously allied with al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group, despite its recent attempts to project itself as a unifying force. Some U.S. officials, however, remain skeptical.
The conflict has left a devastating toll. More than a decade of war has killed hundreds of thousands, decimated infrastructure, and plunged millions into poverty. The World Bank estimates that Syria’s economy has shrunk by over half since 2011. Human development indicators have regressed significantly due to collapsing education and healthcare systems.
Turkey, hosting millions of Syrian refugees, is expected to push for their repatriation and a peaceful transition of power. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized collaboration, stating, “We must work with Syrians and international actors to ensure a smooth transition.”
Israel, meanwhile, made a rare move, with ground forces reportedly crossing into Syria for the first time since 1973, as reported by The New York Times.
For both Russia and Iran, Assad’s fall presents challenges. Moscow now faces the task of preserving its interests without Assad, while Tehran must defend its influence. Charles Lister, a Syria expert at the Middle East Institute, remains cautious: “While Assad’s departure may inspire short-term unity, Syria’s deep divisions and years of conflict make the road ahead exceptionally difficult.”
As Syria enters an uncertain phase, regional and global actors are bracing for the repercussions of Assad’s stunning downfall.
