As winter sets in, temperatures in the UAE are expected to dip as low as 12°C in the coming weeks, accompanied by rainfall and windy conditions, according to the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM).
Speaking to Khaleej Times on Thursday, Dr. Ahmed Habib, a climate expert at NCM, explained that north-westerly winds starting from December 16 will bring cooler air masses, causing a gradual temperature drop across the country. “Temperatures will decrease by 5-7°C, starting in the western areas and extending to the rest of the UAE. The maximum temperature will hover around 25-26°C, while the minimum could drop to 12°C,” said Dr. Habib.
Earlier this week, rainfall hit parts of the eastern and northern regions, prompting authorities to issue red and yellow fog alerts due to reduced horizontal visibility.
Rainy Weekend Forecast
The upcoming weekend is expected to be partly cloudy to cloudy, with rainfall likely in certain areas. Eastern regions like Al Ain and northern areas such as Ras Al Khaimah may experience light to moderate rain, while strong north-westerly winds may cause blowing dust during the day.
Dr. Habib added, “From Friday to Sunday, there is a significant chance of rainfall over islands, sea areas, Ras Al Khaimah, the northern part of Umm Al Quwain, and possibly eastern regions. Dubai, however, has a lower likelihood of rain. The sea will be rough due to strong winds.”
Winter Start and Climate Trends
Winter officially begins in the UAE on December 22, with the coldest period historically recorded between January 16 and 18 over the past 30 years.
According to the traditional Arabian Gulf calendar, winter is divided into two phases — “Arba’in Al Merei” and “Arba’in Al Aqrabi”, each lasting 40 days. The “Arba’in Al Merei” phase starts around December 28, bringing intense cold and rainfall.
Dr. Habib noted that winter temperatures will steadily decline throughout December and January, influenced by atmospheric conditions such as the nature and direction of air masses. “Cold air masses, particularly at night, will significantly affect interior regions,” he said.
Reflecting on past weather patterns, Dr. Habib highlighted that dry winters occurred around 2001 and two to three years ago, similar to this year’s conditions. “Rainfall this season will depend on atmospheric factors. While winter generally increases the chance of rain, its actual occurrence varies,” he explained.
