North Korea and Russia’s Dangerous Partnership: A Growing Threat to Global Security

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the cooperation between North Korea and Russia has rapidly escalated. By October 2024, North Korea was confirmed to have sent troops to support Russian forces, signaling that the North Korea–Russia relationship has evolved from a transactional alliance into a more strategic and ideological partnership. This growing alliance poses significant risks to regional stability and the broader international order.

A Shift from Transactional to Strategic Alliance
Initially, the relationship between North Korea and Russia centered around a cash-for-weapons exchange. However, over the past year, the partnership has deepened to include direct military support. The North Korean regime’s growing reliance on Russia for financial, food, and military aid has provided Moscow with crucial support as it faces increasing international isolation. In return, Russia has become a key ally for North Korea, helping it further its nuclear weapons and missile programs and strengthening Kim Jong Un’s regime.

Key Drivers of the North Korea-Russia Partnership
This strengthened partnership is driven by four key factors:

North Korea’s Desire for Aid: The North Korean regime is seeking food, financial resources, and, most importantly, military assistance from Russia.
Russia’s Need for Munitions: Facing sanctions and ongoing military challenges in Ukraine, Russia is turning to North Korea for weapons and other military supplies.
North Korea’s Long-Term Strategic Goals: North Korea aims to align with a great power like Russia to undermine international security institutions and gain support for its nuclear ambitions.
Nuclear and Missile Development: North Korea’s desire to strengthen its nuclear and missile capabilities continues, as it remains determined to maintain its weapons programs for regime survival.
Rising Threats to Global Security
The growing partnership between North Korea and Russia poses a two-pronged threat to global security:

Regional Conflict: North Korea’s escalating provocations towards South Korea, coupled with its growing military ties with Russia, heighten the risk of conflict in Northeast Asia.
Weapons Proliferation: The alliance between the two countries complicates international efforts to curb illicit arms trade and nuclear proliferation. As they work together, they undermine global efforts to control dangerous military technology.
China’s Growing Concern
China, North Korea’s most significant economic partner, is closely monitoring the evolving relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow. While China has yet to take a clear stance, it is concerned about the increasing trilateral cooperation between the US, Japan, and South Korea, particularly as it faces the growing influence of this alliance.

Recommended Actions to Address the Threat
The US and its allies, particularly Japan and South Korea, must take several steps to address the dangers posed by the North Korea-Russia partnership:

Increase Support for Ukraine: South Korea, which has hesitated to provide military aid to Ukraine, should reconsider its position in light of North Korea’s direct involvement in the conflict. South Korea’s security interests are now closely tied to the outcome of the war.

Strengthen Deterrence Against North Korea: The US, Japan, and South Korea should enhance their military cooperation, focusing on joint exercises, intelligence-sharing, and high-level talks to counter North Korea’s growing nuclear capabilities. Continued bilateral and trilateral cooperation is essential as North Korea’s nuclear threats continue to grow.

Promote Regional Cooperation: South Korea’s diplomatic efforts toward Japan should serve as a foundation for strengthening trilateral ties with the US and Japan, addressing the regional security implications of the North Korea-Russia alliance. Additionally, China, despite its ties to both North Korea and Russia, should not be excluded from dialogue.

Strengthen Indo-Pacific and European Partnerships: South Korea should deepen its engagement with security groups like the Quad and AUKUS and enhance ties with European allies. Strengthening relationships with Europe, such as through agreements like the Downing Street Accord with the UK, is also crucial.

Increase Information Flow into North Korea: While regime change in North Korea seems unlikely, the US and its allies should work to increase the flow of external information into the country. By partnering with defector-led organizations, the South Korean government, and international NGOs, they can promote long-term change in North Korea’s attitudes toward the Kim Jong Un regime.

Conclusion
The evolving partnership between North Korea and Russia represents a growing global security challenge. With increasing military cooperation and shared strategic goals, this alliance has the potential to destabilize regional security and undermine international efforts to control weapons proliferation. The international community, particularly the US, Japan, South Korea, and their European allies, must act swiftly and decisively to address these threats and safeguard global stability.